The loudest predictions about remote work — that it would either completely replace or completely fail to replace the office — have both aged poorly. What actually emerged is more boring and more durable: a hybrid norm that varies by industry, seniority and life stage.

Recent workforce surveys put fully in-office roles at roughly a third of knowledge work, fully remote at another quarter, and hybrid arrangements filling the middle. Those shares have been remarkably stable for two years.

The productivity debate has cooled off along with the numbers. Well-designed studies suggest that individual output tends to hold up remotely, while activities that depend on informal exchange — mentoring, cross-team improvisation, onboarding — take longer to rebuild.

The companies that appear to be handling this best are not the loudest ones. They are the ones treating location as one design variable among many, and being honest about the trade-offs of whatever mix they've chosen.